2000 S40 P0014 CEL on start
 

I have a 2000 S40 with 70k miles on it, well maintained with regular oil changes. Within the past month or so, it's been throwing a P0014 (cam out of position) check engine light about once every week on start up or soon after (within 1 min.) of starting. Outside temperature makes no difference, it's been 70 and it's been 30 when the light comes on. Other than the light, the engine seems a little rough when cold but runs fine.

I removed the VVT solenoid and cleaned the value with carb cleaner. Solenoid resistance was normal (I don't remember the exact value but it agreed with another thread here). The valve gasket was looking pretty old, so I replaced that but the light still comes on. I changed the oil to synthetic last weekend, but the light still comes on. I'm fairly sure it's either the camshaft position sensor or the VVT solenoid. Any ideas on how to narrow it down? I've got an oscilliscope but I'm not sure if there's a way to test for an intermittent problem like this. Anyone else have the same problem?

Make sure it didn't jump time.

Intake and exhaust markings line up. I didn't check the crankshaft alignment because I don't have a socket big enough to rotate into place. What size is the crank pulley nut? I may end up replacing the timing belt soon anyways.

I believe it is a 32MM. Sorry I just have the socket and grab it.

How serious is this issue? Should I wait (probably a week) until I can borrow some tools to change the timing belt before I start looking at other causes?

It should be fine.